Newcastle v Reading

Newcastle are scrapping in the bottom three at the moment while Reading are amongst a glut of clubs on or around the 25pt mark. Both clubs are on a good streak at the moment but Newcastle have injury problems and are already saying how they are waiting for the transfer window. I make this a close game and think it could go either way but probably wont.

LAY Newcastle, 2pts @ 2.24

another win

Barcelona come through comfortably 2-0.

Profit figures for these free bets now stand at +4.11pts assuming a 4% comission on Betfair bets.

Get on Barca

Barcelona need to beat Werder Bremen to progress in the Champions league.
They are at home.
They are the best team in the competition.

They would win this 3 times out of 4.

Take the 1.47 @ Betfair for 5 pts.

Disappointing england

Well I said I didnt facny England, but it was like a sore tooth, and I couldn't leave it alone. As expected though the stand out bet came through with scotland being beaten by almost 30 points. The safest 1.4 bet I have seen in a long time.

Overall we are still +4 pts after only 5 bets so not a bad start

Scotland v Australia

There is a standout bet this weekend.

Australia to beat Scotland @ 1.42.

Australia have won the last 16 matches against Scotland and despite being beaten by Ireland last week the Aussies are a good couple of steps above the plucky, but essentially less than talented Scots.

Scotland have lost Jason White, Chris Cusiter and Johnny Beattie.

Australia will win.

5 pts Australia to win @1.42 (Betfair)

England v South Africa the rematch

Well, last week we said get on England to win and they did.

This week is the last of the 4 internationals for England, and they need another win.

England have drifted slightly to 1.69 for the win this week and I am tempted to say that they will win again. I think England will benefit from the loss of the lamentable Charlie Hodgson and also the fear of losing.

3 pts England @ 1.69.

A wins a win

Well, England are a lot worse than I thought. Still a wins a win and we will take the +2pts it brought with it thanks very much!

Will be interested to see the odds for next weeks game soon.

England v South Africa

We have another chance to take on the media this weekend. England are on their worst ever streak in the history of rugby and Andy Robinson is being pilloried from every corner. This weekend they play South Africa, and everyone's getting awfully nervous.

So - is it squeaky bum time for England?

Lets look at the facts. England have indeed lost their last 7 matches, but they were:

Scotland (away)
France (away)
Ireland (home)
Australia (away)
Australia (away)
New Zealand (home)
Argentina (home)

So we can discount the games against the Aussies, and France as they are almost the best in the world and were all away. The loss to the Kiwis can be discounted as they play on a different planet anyway. The loss to Scotland started this streak off, and so can be discounted as a lapse of concentration in a game they expected to win. Next comes Ireland - ok, thats a shock, and then Argentina.

So in effect we are talking about a team that lost to Argentina, who got creditable results against NZ, France, Australia, Ireland and Scotland recently and the media tells us they are disastrously bad.

Forgive me if I disagree...

Now lets look at the opposition. South Africa have left 13 first team players behind. This is actually a match against South Africa A.

So we have a team that are not as bad as people think they are, playing a team who are worse than people think they are, and one team knows they need a good result to knock back some of the flak they are getting.

I honestly think there is only one winner. England.

Consequently I will take odds of 1.66 on an England win at Betfair and I recommend you get on.

England internationals

Now we aren't into aftertiming round here but we recently gave out a tip to lay Holland against England and we have another chance this weekend to take on the bookies with the help of our friends the English media.

The key to good betting is to find value. What better way than when the entire country (and all its casual punters) are misled about the quality of a single team on a sports event.

The English media are out to sell papers - they do this by exaggerating the performance of an England team. No-one wants to read a story about how the team are ok, they have to be either brilliant or terrible. At the moment the papers have chosen terrible. The truth is they are only mediocre, not terrible. Hence the odds were artificially low on Holland against England on Wednesday (2.2 for the win) and as long as the media keep trying to tell us how terrible England are we will be happy to support them (at least to not lose).

Usually of course, the media tell us England are the best team in the world - at that point we like to oppose them.

If only there were more international games...

Lets get this started....

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